La caída del dólar canadiense respecto al yanqui desde 2013 hace imposible la compra de F-35 en los términos actuales. El programa total (no sólo adquisición de los aviones) estaba planeado en 16.000 millones de dólares y se calcula ahora en 49.000 millones, lo que es 3.200 millones más caro que las predicciones más agoreras. Ya en 2011 se paró el programa y se activó la búsqueda de alternativas por la gran subida que se estaba produciendo.
Se proponen tres soluciones:
- recortar de 65 F-35 a no más de 54, aunque los 65 son el mínimo necesario para la FA canadiense.
- quitar los 3.200 millones de otros proyectos militares, algo que parece imposible dados los recortes.
- o comprar un caza menos caro.
Canadá tiene analizadas las alternativas de varios fabricantes pero el gobierno aún no ha querido abrir concurso, mientras que los líderes de los dos principales partidos opositores dicen que hay que abrirlo.
Yo creo que Canadá comprará F-35 pero menos cantidad que el mínimo (los 50 y pocos). Actualmente tienen 80 Hornet modernizados operativos de los 140 que llegaron a tener, 62 monoplazas y 18 biplazas.
Michael Byers: The F-35 is now unaffordable thanks to the low Canadian dollar
September 17, 2015
[Michael Byers holds the Canada Research Chair in Global Politics and International Law at the University of British Columbia.]
The Royal Canadian Air Force’s (RCAF) hoped-for-purchase of F-35 fighter jets has hit another obstacle, in the form of a Canadian dollar that has dropped 25 per cent against its U.S. counterpart since 2013. Another, less expensive, non-developmental plane will now need to be chosen to replace the three decade-old CF-18s.
The cost of the F-35 first became an issue in 2010 when the Harper government announced it would acquire 65 of the planes for $9 billion, with a total project cost of $16 billion. The Canadian dollar was then at US$0.96.
After the 2011 election, Auditor General Michael Ferguson revealed that the Harper government had been operating with two different cost projections for the F-35, with the internal estimate being $10 billion higher than the number provided publicly.
The Harper government responded by suspending the procurement, ordering the RCAF to conduct an “options analysis” of the F-35 and alternative aircraft, and setting a $9 billion limit for acquisition cost.
The Harper government also commissioned KPMG to clarify the cost of 65 F-35s. In November 2012, the accounting firm came up with a total project cost of $45.8 billion. The Canadian dollar was then at US$1.01.
In November 2014, the Department of National Defence (DND) released an update on the F-35 procurement that estimated the same total project cost as KPMG, namely $45.8 billion. It arrived at that number using an exchange rate of US$0.92.
...
Here’s the bottom line: the total cost of the F-35 program is now $49 billion — an increase of $3.2 billion from the projections provided by KPMG in 2012 and DND in 2014. This includes all acquisition, sustainment and operating costs and assumes that development, disposal and attrition costs have not changed.
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One option is to purchase only 54 F-35s, which is all that $9 billion can now buy. The problem is, the RCAF has stated that it requires a minimum of 65 fighter jets.
Another option is to divert the $3.2 billion from other military projects. But the Harper government has already cut defence spending to one per cent of GDP, the lowest level in half a century.
A third option is to purchase a less expensive plane. For instance, a fleet of Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornets would cost about $6.5 billion at the current exchange rate, and would be significantly cheaper to operate and sustain than a fleet of F-35s.
Unlike Harper, who has not revealed his current plan, both opposition leaders are committed to a full competition for new aircraft to replace the CF-18s. Yet any such competition would be constrained by a budgetary ceiling and a baseline number of planes, which — given current circumstances — would preclude the F-35 from the outset.
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http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comme ... ian-dollar
